Gold Eyes 1973년 이후 원유 대비 최악의 달; 광산주, 2008년 이후 가장 많이 하락

A movement unseen since the Arab oil embargo is reshaping commodity markets — and the longer the Iran war and the Hormuz blockade hold, the deeper the damage runs. Gold prices are facing their worst monthly performance against Brent crude since December 1973 — and the shockwave is tearing through the mining sector with historic force. Gold-Oil Ratio Crashes 43% — Worst Monthly Drop Since 1973 Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares, is down 13% month-to-date, falling to $4,580 per ounce as of Thursday morning — its worst absolute monthly drop since October 2008, when Lehman Brothers had just collapsed and global markets were in freefall. But the absolute decline in gold is almost a distraction from what is happening in relative terms compared to oil prices. The gold-to-Brent ratio — the number of barrels of crude an ounce of gold can buy — has crashed 43% month-to-date to roughly 40. Don't Miss: - Investors With $1M+ Often Use Advisors for Tax Strategy — This Tool Matches You With One in Minutes - Think your retirement plan is on track? Click here to see how it stacks up against the numbers most Americans are missing That is gold’s worst monthly performance against oil since December 1973, when Arab states cut off crude exports to the West and rewired the entire global commodity order. Why Gold Is Falling During The War In Iran The conventional market wisdom holds that gold rises in times of geopolitical stress. Safe-haven demand, the argument goes, pushes bullion higher when uncertainty spikes. The Iran war has turned that playbook on its head. Gold is not a simple safe-haven asset that rises in any conflict. Gold is an interest-rate-sensitive asset, and right now, interest rates are the problem. Rising oil prices, driven by the Strait of Hormuz disruption and the broader energy shock, are reigniting inflationary fears that markets had spent months assuming were behind them. Before the conflict, traders had priced in two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026. That expectation has now evaporated. In its place, a more alarming scenario is gaining traction: if the energy shock persists, the risk of outright rate hikes re-enters the picture. Trending: You Saved for Retirement — But Do You Know What You'll Keep After Taxes? According to Polymarket, there is a 17% chance of a Fed rate hike this year – that’s more than double the odds seen prior to the start of the war in Iran. This is the mirror image of the 2025 historic gold rally. Then, falling inflation and aggressive rate-cut expectations propelled gold to record territory.