금값 사상 최고치 '0.6%'… 금리 인하로 금·은·동 급등 - 경향신문

After plunging sharply from a peak in October, international gold prices have rebounded quickly and are now on the verge of setting a new all-time closing high. Silver and copper prices have also recently set record highs, extending a tandem rally across ‘gold·silver·copper’. As expectations for U.S. rate cuts come to the fore, demand for safe-haven assets is elevated, while for silver and copper, surging industrial demand driven by advanced industries such as artificial intelligence (AI) has fueled the rally. While the consensus is that the ‘gold·silver·copper’ rally will continue for the time being, a pullback cannot be ruled out if expectations for U.S. rate cuts fade. On the 15th (local time), gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $4,335.20 per ounce. Converted into won (1,471 won per dollar), that is about 768,800 won per don, leaving just about 0.6% to go before the all-time closing high of $4,359.40 set on October 20. As the kimchi premium (a situation where domestic prices are higher than international prices), which had exceeded double digits in October, has dissipated, domestic gold prices are roughly 10% lower than last October’s peak; still, this month they have generally hovered around 200,000 won per gram, remaining elevated. Silver and copper are strong as well. On the 11th, silver futures closed at $64.59 per ounce, a new all-time closing high, and on the same day on the London Metal Exchange, copper futures hit a record closing high of $11,872 per tonne. So far this year, international gold prices have risen 64.15%, and silver has more than doubled (117.48%) from the start of the year. On the 15th, Bloomberg reported, “Both gold and silver appear set to post their highest annual returns since 1979.” A common backdrop behind the simultaneous strength in gold·silver·copper is ‘rate cuts’. Precious metals typically strengthen when interest rates fall. Yield-bearing investments such as bonds offer lower interest income, whereas precious metals can preserve value, making them relatively more attractive. In particular, for silver and copper, exploding demand from advanced industries such as AI has driven the surge. Silver is essential for solar panels and is increasingly used in EV components, yet supply has barely increased. Copper is similar: most EVs and batteries require copper, and data centers and power grid expansions also use it across the board. With global consumption soaring faster than supply can keep up, prices are structurally bound to rise. That is why many experts expect the gold·silver·copper rally to continue next year. There are, however, many variables. If expectations for U.S. rate cuts are undermined, prices could fall. On the 16th (KST), domestic·overseas stock markets including the KOSPI, as well as precious metals, declined as monetary policy uncertainty grew ahead of the U.S. jobs report due out that night. If U.S. employment is moderately weak, the likelihood of rate cuts actually increases; if employment is solid, the odds diminish; and if employment is too weak, recession fears emerge. Rising oil prices and falling inflation could also become variables. Cathie Wood, the Ark Investment CEO known as the ‘money tree sister’, warned on a recent podcast, “Historically, when inflation concerns dissipate, gold prices have plunged.” Choi Jin-young, an analyst at Daishin Securities, said, “We can take an optimistic view on gold, silver, and copper through the first half of next year, but oil prices could rise in the second half or the fourth quarter,” adding, “If oil rises, expectations for rate cuts will fade, and adjustments could come for miners of gold as well as silver and copper.”